From Bolsa Família to Basic Income: A New Vision for Climate Justice and Social Equity in Brazil
Tomás Paes de Carvalho - Director, Brazil
Equal Right’s latest report — "Basic Income for a Just Transition and Ecosocial Transformation in Brazil" — lays out a bold vision for how Universal Basic Income could support both climate action and social justice in Brazil. This blog - written by the report’s co-author - unpacks some of the report’s key arguments, from protecting vulnerable communities to rethinking how we finance conservation.
After holding the G20 Presidency, Brazil continues to command global attention as it prepares to host COP30 in Belém this November, and with it comes mounting pressure to lead the way in achieving a just transition. A nation known for ‘Bolsa Família’, Brazil is at a critical moment in tackling economic inequality, protecting its environment, and offering climate leadership. One potential tool for this transformation: Universal Basic Income (UBI).
Equal Right’s latest report, “Basic Income for a Just Transition and Ecosocial Transformation in Brazil,” argues that any meaningful shift from fossil fuels to a sustainable economy requires a deep redistribution of wealth. Despite recent moves toward greater socioeconomic justice, structural inequality still pervades Brazilian society. A closer look at the country's most vulnerable communities reveals the persistence of poverty and hardship, and highlights the need for new approaches that move beyond neoliberal and extractivist models.
As of December 2024, nearly 59 million Brazilians — 27.4% of the population — lived in poverty, earning less than R$665 per month (roughly US$6.85 a day). An additional 10 million people live in extreme poverty, surviving on less than R$209 per month (US$2.15 a day). Among youth aged 15 to 29, one in five neither studies nor works. These figures underscore the urgent need to ensure that Brazil's green transition doesn't leave behind those already struggling.
Structural changes in the global economy, especially those tied to the climate transition, risk displacing workers and deepening existing vulnerabilities. UBI could act as a buffer, protecting workers impacted by the transition and helping them access training and education. By offering financial security in times of uncertainty, UBI prevents the costs of the green transition from falling unfairly on the poorest.
The report is written by Equal Right’s Patrick Brown and Tomás Paes de Carvalho in partnership with Brazilian NGO Transforma.
Rethinking Conservation: From Market Mechanisms to Direct Support
In Brazil, any effort to protect nature must also recognize and support those who have historically done the most to conserve it — particularly Indigenous communities and smallholder farmers. These groups, often excluded from policy priorities, face increasing risks due to climate change. Evidence shows that Bolsa Família has already influenced migration decisions during crop failures, giving rural families more agency. As small farmers face growing instability, a basic income could offer both food and economic security, empowering them to stay or relocate as needed.
This marks a critical departure from mainstream transition strategies, which often prioritize agribusiness interests while overlooking those most harmed by climate-related disasters. A basic income for small farmers would not only protect them but also recognize their role in climate resilience.
The report also proposes a "Cash for Conservation" model, positioning Brazil as a pioneer in rethinking conservation finance. Brazil’s experience with programs like Bolsa Família and Bolsa Verde, along with its constitutional commitment to basic income, provide a strong foundation. In contrast, global carbon markets and REDD+ schemes have often failed, especially where Indigenous rights, land conflicts, and community livelihoods intersect with environmental goals.
Unconditional cash transfers could offer a more effective and equitable alternative. They address root causes of deforestation — poverty, land insecurity, and lack of options — rather than relying on market mechanisms that let polluters off the hook. By reducing economic pressure on communities, financial security can lower deforestation and ecosystem degradation.
Building on this logic, the report proposes piloting an Indigenous Basic Income (IBI) in Brazil. Such a program would recognize the vital role Indigenous peoples play in preserving forests, water systems, and biodiversity. Given the relatively low cost and high ecological value of standing forests, an IBI could reshape Brazil’s approach to both climate and justice, offering reparation for historical inequalities while supporting the country’s true environmental stewards.
Cap and Share
At the heart of these proposals is a bold financing mechanism: Cap and Share. Under this model, a global carbon charge — set at $135 per tonne of CO₂ — is applied at the point of fossil fuel extraction, with strict limits (caps) on total emissions. Revenues are funneled into a Global Commons Fund, which distributes a global UBI. The payout grows with the fund’s performance, redistributing wealth from polluters to those most affected by climate impacts.
In essence, Cap and Share represents a fundamental shift in how we view climate and economic justice. By directly linking environmental responsibility with social equity, it offers a transformative path forward, one that Brazil, with its history of social programs and rich ecological heritage, is uniquely positioned to lead.
Read the full report in English and Portuguese